Climate research improves profitability for dairy farmers
News story from 'Climate Change, A NSW Department of Primary Industries special feature', in The Land, October 2008
NSW DPI research agronomist Katrina Sinclair has been working closely on climate with a group of north coast dairyfarmers for the last two years and the impacts have been eye-opening.
"We started out focussing on the use of climate forecasting tools to help dairyfarmers make better decisions about the types of forage crops and pastures they plant each year," said Ms Sinclair, who is based at Wollongbar.
"What types of forage crops to sow and when are critical decisions for dairy farmers in the unreliable sub-tropical climate of the States north coast.
"Such decisions influence the yields and the quality of milk produced by dairy cows.
"As part of the project, local dairy farmers worked with us, using historical climate and feedbase data from a range of sources to create a forecasting tool that helps match the most appropriate forage crops with seasonal trends.
"Understanding these tools helps ease the decision making process, and gives farmers a leg-up in creating a more profitable dairy operation."
Ms Sinclair said she found farmers would act or react to forecasting if you can show them the probablility of certain weather conditions is 70 pc or higher.
"That is, when the forecasting tools say that the weather conditions will happen seven or more times out of ten. In general, thats the level of the attitude to risk among farmers," she said.
According to Ms Sinclair, the unreliable climate of the sub-tropical north can be a challenge for many farmers.
"Although the average annual rainfall in the far north-eastern parts of NSW is relatively high, it is also unreliable within and between seasons," Ms Sinclair said. This makes developing a feed management strategy very difficult.
"By tapping into climate predictors such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST), we can better understand the long-term variability and seasonal trends of this area," she said.
"We can also use growth models that use climate and soil data to estimate feed on-offer for their potential to add value to climate variability information.
Farmer workshops were conducted on the NSW north coast and small discussion groups of farmers reviewed the seasonal feedbase options.
"We have found that by focussing closely on climate, many farmers are making major decisions for the longterm not just only based on pastures, but also on shade for heat stress or cross breeding," she said.
Ms Sinclair said while there was uncertainty, all science pointed to the likelihood it was going to be warmer and drier in the future, but it was possible to increase profitability and reduce risk by becoming more proactive, as opposed to reactive, in managing seasonal conditions.
For example, data collected in the Casino region showed average annual rainfall for the past 15 years had sat below the 1161 millimetre average for 1961-90 (the standard period used to measure climate change), she said.
"At the same time, temperature in spring had been rising, the number of spring days over 29 degrees Celsius totalling 13 in 1990 compared with 3.1 in 1961.
"The hottest spring day used to be 35 degrees Celsius and is now 37," she said.
"We know the optimum growth temperature for annual ryegrass, which has its peak growth period in spring, to be 23 to 25 degrees Celsius, with a recording above 29 degrees severely reducing growth and quality.
"We also know that a five per cent decrease in rainfall can result in a 10pc decrease in run-off. So based on that basic information, we can start to make changes and decisions in this one area that allow us to better manage climate variability."
The research project is funded by Land and Water Australia and Dairy Australia and led by researchers at the Wollongbar Agricultural Institute.
The value of NSW north coast farmgate milk production is $86 million. There are 330 dairy farms on the north coast with regional factories at Lismore, Wauchope and Raleigh, processing whole milk as well as making cheeses, ice creams, yoghurts and milk powder.
Return to Research
Return to News stories
Return to Adaptations of livestock producers to predicted climate change